上海后花园

With several days to go before the end of fiscal year 2023 on September 30, the massive expansion in US federal budget deficit is setting off alarm bells across the American economy. The deviation between US fiscal policy and Federal Reserve's monetary policies is like two gears pulling in opposite directions. The longer the deviation takes, the more financial risks will be accumulated throughout the US system, risking spillover effects on other economies.

The US Congress has just several days to avert a shutdown before the government runs out of money. The deadline for lawmakers to reach an agreement is midnight on September 30, after which government funding for essential services is set to run dry. This is not the first time that the government is faced with plunging into such as an awkward situation. The most recent shutdowns were in 2018, when the government was shut more than 30 days.

The last three years of public policy have had a major impact on the federal budget. The large increases in government spending far outpaced the growth in revenues, reportedly resulting in deficits of $2.7 trillion, $1.4 trillion, and $1.6 trillion in fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with the last month of 2023 based on current estimates. As the US national debt passes $33 trillion and a government shutdown looms, Wall Street and global investors inevitably feel the chill.

Some analysts believe the US economy has been on a strong recovery track since the beginning of the year. Such an uptrend should be attributed to multiple factors, among them an expansionary US fiscal policy that includes high levels of government spending is an important one. Increased government spending can take the form of both purchases of goods and services, which directly increases economic activity, and is transferred to individuals, indirectly increasing economic activity as individuals spend those funds.

Meanwhile, inflation rates increased for a second straight month in August, reversing previous declines as consumers continued to grapple with the rising cost of everyday goods. Since March 2022, the Fed has lifted interest rates 11 times and held them steady only twice, including September's pause, to control inflation. The substantial tightening in monetary policy has started to weigh on activity, increasing households' and firms' interest payments, and putting pressure on the real economy. It's understandable that an expansionary fiscal policy has been adopted to increase government spending amid inflation woes and it would be conducive to offset the negative impact of tightening monetary policies on the economy.

A year ago a majority of economists expected a US recession. So where'd it go? Increasing government spending may be one of the factors that have kept a recession at bay, at least so far. The more aggressive the Fed's tightening monetary policy is, the more government spending may be requested to stimulate growth. With 2024 presidential election just about one year away, the Biden faces a challenge: how to convince voters that he has the ability to boost growth while curb inflation.

In such a situation, the Biden administration probably hopes to maintain elevated government spending to promote growth. The tightening of monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy seem like the two ends of a seesaw, requiring a delicate balance to avoid a recession in the US economy.

However, what some Western economists tend not to notice are the side effects on the US economy. A big part of the story is the massive expansion in the federal budget deficit. Prospect of government shutdown poses a new threat to the US economy. For instance, a government shutdown would cost the US travel economy as much as $140 million a day, CNN reported, citing an analysis released by the US Travel Association. While the US economy is unlikely to implode any time soon, it faces significant and deep-rooted challenges. Moody's Investors Service said on Monday that US credit rating could come under pressure if the government shuts down.  

The US remains the world's largest economy, the mistakes it makes often result in strong spillover effects that not only harm itself but also burden the region and even the entire world economy.  Missteps over stubborn inflation and massive expansion in federal budget deficit make the country a real "time bomb" posing a danger to the world.

The city of Qingdao in East China's Shandong Province has strengthened the marine pasture construction as an important way to accelerate the transformation of maritime farming industry. There are 27 marine pastures under construction in Qingdao, of which 21 have been designated as national marine pasture demonstration areas.

Recently, 40,000 mu of Penaeus orientalis raised in Dingziwan area, Jimo welcomed this year's harvest season. This year, the local marine department cooperated with scientific research institutes to introduce the "Huanghai No.6" Penaeus orientalis. After five months of cultivation, the harvest period will last until the end of October. At present, there are Penaeus orientalis, Litopenaeus Vannamei and other varieties cultivated in the base, with an annual output of more than 2,000,000 kilograms of Penaeus orientalis and an increase of income of more than 200 million yuan for farmers annually.

With the continuous development of the industry, the demand for electricity in breeding bases is on the rise. The local power supply department actively promotes the upgrading and transformation of the power grid in aquaculture concentrated areas, optimizes the grid structure, and makes every effort to ensure the safety and reliability of power supply by means of night patrol temperature measurement and special line patrol. During the harvest period, the State Grid Qingdao Jimo Power Supply Company visits the aquaculture base every week to carry out safety inspections on electrical equipment, so as to help farmers solve practical difficulties and explain the knowledge of safe and reasonable power consumption.

Home to some of the country's richest marine resources, Qingdao has formed a complete industrial chain of mariculture processing. The local power supply department serves the electricity demands of marine pasture construction, mariculture company processing, cold chain logistics, speeds up the planning and construction of distribution network, and takes the initiative to come to the door to preach the policy of benefiting companies for mariculture processing companies, provide power technical support and support the safe use of electricity.

Shares of the heavily indebted Evergrande Group closed up about 28 percent on Tuesday as the company resumed its trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, several days after its founder Hui Kai Yan has been subject to mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of violating law and committing crimes.

Shares of Evergrande jumped as much as 42 percent during Tuesday’s trading. Another Evergrande stock, Evergrande Property Services Group, closed down about 3 percent. 

Real estate and property management services stocks fell on Tuesday’s closing, with Zhenro Properties Group dropping about 9 percent and Country Garden Services Holdings Co falling about 7 percent.

Last week, China Evergrande said it received notification from relevant authorities that Hui Ka Yan, an executive director of the company and chairman of the board of directors of the company, has been subject to mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of criminal wrongdoing.

"There is currently no other inside information in relation to the company that needs to be disclosed," Evergrande said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday. 

In September, several staff working in the wealth management unit of the crisis-hit property developer were placed under a criminal probe.

“The resumption of trading of two Evergrande stocks today has attracted much attention, on the one hand, because investors are concerned about Evergrande's current operating conditions and capital market performance, on the other hand, there is no trading in the A-share market due to holidays, and the Hong Kong stock market is more able to see the market performance of real estate stocks,” Yan Yuejin, a research director at Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Yan noted that Evergrande shares had better-than-expected performance, which was in line with the laws of the capital market. Investors will continue to pay close attention to the situation of Evergrande's real estate projects, the expansion of its property services sector and the development direction of new-energy vehicles, he added.

Cooperation in the field of vaccine between China and Indonesia continue to expand and deepen to jointly fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, with multiple Chinese biological pharmaceutical enterprises and Indonesian companies signing agreements of cooperation during the 2022 G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

During the summit, Indonesian biological pharmaceutical company PT Etana Biotechnologies Indonesia (Etana) signed agreements with three Chinese companies including CanSino Biologics Inc, Walvax Biotechnology Co, and Abogen Biosciences.

The Global Times learned that the content of the cooperation including the agreements on the inhaled tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, Meningitis vaccine and the facilities for the construction of virus carrier platform reached by Etana and CanSino Biologics (CanSinoBIO), the agreement on the vaccine development of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and human papillomavirus vaccines between Etana and Walvax, and the agreement on the research and development of mRNA therapies including COVID-19 vaccines, Dengue vaccine and products related to tumors between Etana and Abogen.

According to Nathan Tirtana, founder and CEO of Etana, the company hope to take advantage of this opportunity to help the Indonesian Ministry of Health achieve its goals and ensure the fair distribution of vaccines, medicines and medical devices among different countries, especially the developing countries.

The Global Times learned from CanSinoBIO that the two companies will promote joint development and commercialization of innovative vaccine products based on their respective advantages and help Indonesia build a regional vaccine production center.

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, cooperation in the field of health between China and Indonesia has increased. Particularly, the cooperation in vaccine has always been at the forefront of the world.

China was the first country to cooperate with Indonesia in the research and development of vaccines and specific medicines for COVID-19. China has also supported Indonesia in establishing a regional vaccine production center and is one of the largest suppliers of COVID-19 vaccines to Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indonesia was also one of the first countries to provide material assistance to China after the COVID-19 outbreak.

So far, COVID-19 vaccines of multiple Chinese companies including Sinovac Biotech, China National Biotec Group (CNBG), CanSinoBIO and BioKangtai have been approved for use in Indonesia.

Sinovac has supplied more than 280 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Indonesia including over 130 million doses exported as semi-finished products, the Global Times learned from the company.

BioKangtai started production of the adenovirus vector vaccine for COVID-19 in February of 2021, and the vaccine was approved for emergency use in Indonesia on October 31, 2021. The company signed a purchase agreement on the vaccine with an Indonesian partner in November 2021. Over 30 million doses of the company's adenovirus vector vaccine were exported to Indonesia in 2021.

In March this year, CanSinoBIO's adenovirus type-5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine (Ad5-nCoV) was approved by BPOM Indonesia as booster shots following inactivated vaccine, while CNBG's inactivated vaccine, which had previously been approved as emergency use in Indonesia, was also approved there in March as a heterologous booster.

Apart from the cooperation in the combat against COVID-19 between the two countries, Chinese and Indonesian experts and scientists of TB and respiratory infectious diseases also discussed and shared their latest research results on the elimination of TB with innovative vaccine technologies during a forum in Bali on Wednesday.

The technology used in CanSinoBio's adenovirus vector vaccine can also be used in the TB vaccine, the company said at the forum.

Imran Pambudi, National TB Program Manager and Deputy Director of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control at the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, thinks highly of the contribution made by CanSinoBio in the research and development of inhaled TB vaccine and the achievements made by the cooperation between China and Indonesia in the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic.

With the development of molecular biology and synthetic biology, human beings have gained the capability to synthesize viruses. However, it remains difficult to synthesize new viruses in a laboratory, an expert was quoted as saying by Jiankang Shibao (Health Times) on Sunday.        

An undercover video recently went viral online, in which a top Pfizer executive claimed that the biotech firm has been considering mutating COVID-19 in order to preemptively create new vaccines, according to media reports. The authenticity of the video had not been confirmed.  

“Allegations have recently been made related to gain of function and directed evolution research at Pfizer and the company would like to set the record straight,” Pfizer said on January 27. 

There are strict ethical restrictions on the study of viruses to prevent any possible leakage and to ensure the safety of experimental research, Zhao Wei, director of the biosafety research center of the School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, told the Health Times.

In an article titled “Challenges of ethical review in the development of COVID-19 vaccines and new drugs” written by Wu Qiong and other co-authors from the Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), it said that clinical trials around the world must be in line with the Declaration of Helsinki and approved by ethics committees, according to Health Times.

During the Ebola pandemic, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine identified seven ethical requirements for experimental research including scientific and social values, respect for individuals, community participation and concern for the welfare and interests of participants, said the report.

China is planning on a quest beyond the solar system to find habitable planets, and the first search will be carried out in 2030 upon the completion of a basic type of telescope array, Chinese researchers revealed at this year's China Space Day event. 

The plan, called the Miyin program, aims to detect "another Earth" among near neighbors of the solar system through the launching of a telescope array. It will also carry out high-resolution imaging and spectroscopic observations of various types of objects to map the water composition of the solar system, opening a new era of high-resolution astronomical observation, Zhang Xuhui, executive vice president of the China Academy of Aerospace Science and Technology Innovation, noted at the event. 

"The Miyin program is ambitious and significant, but it is still in the technology development phase. In the future, we will advance its maturity through a series of flight tests while making scientific discoveries along the way," Zhang said. 

An experimental satellite will be launched to carry out in-orbit tests in 2024, so as to solidify the technology foundation for core technology experimental satellites.

By 2025, optical interference technology experiments will be carried out onboard the China Space Station.

The next year will see the launch of a core technology experimental satellite, which is expected to realize spatially distributed optical interference detection for the first time, thus demonstrating and verifying the core technology of the Miyin program.

By 2030, the basic type of the telescope array will be completed, and optical interference imaging will be achieved. Then the search for habitable exoplanets will begin, Zhang noted. 

The Miyin program will complement deep-space exploration and carry out precise measurements of solar system objects, revealing the characteristics of the solar system and planetary systems. 

It will also map the morphology and physical properties of solar system objects, map the distribution of solar system molecular components, especially water, and reveal the origin and dynamics of the system and the evolution of chemical composition. It will also explore the formation process of habitable conditions of the Earth and the origin of life.

Chinese researchers have successfully proven the existence of the very massive first-generation stars, which are the oldest stars in the universe. After years of work, they have discovered the chemical signature of these stars for the first time, a breakthrough that holds significant importance for understanding the origins and evolution of stars.

The research findings were published online in the international scientific journal Nature on Wednesday, providing an answer to the longstanding question in the scientific community regarding the existence of the very massive first-generation stars during the early stages of the universe, approximately 13.8 billion years ago.

The researchers from the National Astronomical Observatory of China analyzed over 5 million stellar spectra obtained from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) in North China's Hebei Province. Through this analysis, they identified a star located in the halo of the Milky Way, approximately 3,327 light-years away from Earth, with a mass approximately half that of the Sun.

This star exhibited a metal-poor characteristic, indicating its alignment with the characteristics of second-generation stars formed after the demise of the first-generation stars.

The first-generation stars were supermassive stars with masses ranging from 140 to 260 times that of the Sun, making them the oldest stars in the universe. These stars existed over 13 billion years ago but had short lifespans of only 3 million years before undergoing supernova explosions, giving rise to the second-generation stars observed by the researchers.

By observing and studying the second-generation star, the researchers will be able to infer the mass and characteristics of its preceding generation of stars, said Xing Qianfan, a deputy researcher from National Astronomical Observatory of China.

Xing said that the research team will utilize the massive dataset from LAMOST to deduce the distribution of stars with different masses in the earliest first-generation stars. This will enable them to explore the evolutionary history of the entire universe and the evolution of stars.

The virus that causes COVID-19 spreads through the air. But just how much virus people breathe out over the course of infection isn’t well-defined.

To pin the numbers down, olfactory researcher Gregory Lane and colleagues analyzed over 300 breath samples from 43 people with COVID-19, following them for nearly three weeks. Levels varied between and within individuals, but some people shed a lot, releasing over 800 copies of viral RNA per minute at times.

On average, participants breathed out 80 copies per minute for a full eight days after symptoms began, the team reports September 8 in a preprint posted at medRxiv.org. Only after that point did the viral particles drop to nearly undetectable levels.
Lane, of Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago, and colleagues still need to confirm what percentage of that exhaled viral RNA comes from viruses that can still replicate in another person’s body. And scientists don’t yet know how much virus is required for infection.

But, based on the new data, the team estimates that a high shedder could potentially exhale enough virus to infect someone in a closed space in about 20 seconds, making even elevator rides risky. With an average shedder, infection could take a little under four minutes.

The new study, which will be published in eLife, provides valuable information that both nasal swab studies and one-time aerosol experiments cannot, says infectious diseases researcher Kristen Coleman (SN: 7/16/23). Swabs sample only one part of the respiratory tract. And many aerosol experiments measure the amount of virus people spewed while talking, singing or reading aloud, as well as while while breathing, at just a single point during infection (SN: 08/17/21).

Lane’s team devised a simple and cheap tool — essentially a plastic mouthpiece attached to a closed tube — that participants took home with them and breathed into for 10 minutes at a time. That allowed the team to easily collect samples over an extended period of time and track how emissions changed during infection. But the makeshift tool lacks the precision of advanced machines in laboratories and hospitals, says Coleman, of the University of Maryland School of Public Health in College Park. Even the spike of 876 viral RNA copies per minute seen in the new study may be an underestimate by several orders of magnitude, she says.

In the new study, those who reported more severe symptoms tended to emit more virus. Yet even asymptomatic people or those with mild cases breathed out substantial amounts of viral RNA. Both vaccinated and unvaccinated people exhaled similar levels.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently recommends that people who are mildly ill or asymptomatic isolate for at least five days and then mask for another five. Lane would offer different advice: “If my friends or family asked me, I’d say you should isolate through day eight.”

Members of a post-disaster reconstruction working group recently walked into the flooded Xinle village, located in Wuchang city of Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, to investigate and identify flood-hit houses. According to estimates, review of all the homes in 24 townships will complete in three to four days.

In the aftermath of Typhoon Doksuri, Heilongjiang and multiple other regions in China, including Beijing and North China's Hebei Province, have ramped up efforts to restore order for people living in inundated areas. 

In Guyu village, Wuchang city, more than 2,000 mu (133 hectares) of corn has been soaked in water. The local emergency department has transferred large-scale pumping facilities to carry out 24-hour drainage of farmland water. Wuchang has mobilized six post-disaster technical guidance groups to provide technical guidance for villagers in 24 towns and villages for draining field water and spraying pesticides to prevent and control pests and diseases. 

At Sunday midnight, a train carrying 690 tons of Wuchang rice left the local train station. This was the first train of food supplies transported from Wuchang station after the resumption of the railway, which was cut off by flooding. 

People wearing protective gear for disinfection in Shangzhi, one of the seriously stricken cities in Heilongjiang, have completed three rounds of disinfection across more than 320,000 square meters of flood-affected areas.

In response to the flooding of farmland, Hebei Province organized experts and technicians to head to the front lines of the disaster resistance to guide post-disaster agricultural production. At the same time, the province promptly redirected 1.06 million kilograms of seeds of short-growth crops such as cabbage and spinach to prepare for replanting to minimize farmers' losses.

In Zhuozhou, Hebei, four shopping malls and 29 supermarket chains have resumed operation and schools are also stepping up efforts to clean up sludge and disinfect areas to ensure the timely return of students to campus in September. Hebei officials had said earlier that it plans to complete the reconstruction in two years and will take efforts to ensure affected residents are able to return to their homes prior to the approach of winter. 

In Beijing, the lives of local people have gradually resumed. Most recently, six A-level scenic spots in the Fangshan district have reopened. The Fangshan district has labeled regions into three colors based on the severity of flood impact - red, yellow and green - serving as a more efficient method to solve disaster relief work. Officials from Beijing said they have mapped out a plan to improve the city's disaster relief capabilities and the development of flooded regions over the next three years.

Not only have local departments in flood-stricken regions moved quickly to deal with disaster relief, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs urged agricultural departments at all levels to make efforts to alleviate disaster and promote vegetable production.

Meanwhile, to deal with future emergent heavy rainfall and floods and improve the adaptability of urban infrastructure to withstand extreme weather, observers have suggested that the impact infrastructure in some high-risk areas may face from extreme rainstorms brought by climate change be re-evaluated to determine whether the existing level of defense needs to be upgraded, as well as to improve the vigilance and preparedness of local departments and strengthen resilience in the face of a changing climate.

Some water control experts said this round of heavy rainfall reminded some places to make up for the shortcomings of local flood control projects. They pointed out some northern cities in recent years have relaxed their vigilance and constructed flood storage areas in a disorderly manner, such as when building houses, locals may take soil from earth dams, which weakens the flood control capacity of levees.

Sun Shao, a senior researcher at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, told the Global Times that challenges encountered by cities in northern China due to deficient drainage systems, limited river networks, and inadequate urban green space planning, makes them highly vulnerable to flooding during unexpected heavy rainfall.

Cheng Xiaotao, a deputy chief engineer from the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), told the Global Times that besides flood control projects, effective communication about the severity of extreme weather among meteorological, hydrological and water conservancy departments is crucial. For instance, emergency command departments can compile data about the specific precipitation and flow rate of rivers and inform the public in detail.

As heavy rainfall events intensify, there is a higher probability of sudden flash floods, mudslides, and other disasters, Sun said. He explained that reviewing historical patterns, during the 1950s to 1970s, the main rain belt was concentrated in northern China, which later shifted to southern China in the 1980s and 1990s. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the main rain belt has gradually moved northward again.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities' collusion with external forces will only push Taiwan into the abyss of disaster, said a Chinese mainland Taiwan affairs official at the opening of a major cross-Straits academic seminar in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan Province on Thursday, alluding to the deputy leader of Taiwan island Lai Ching-te's provocative "transit" through the US.

Hosted by Cross-Straits Relations Research Center affiliated with the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council and with a theme of "cross-Straits relations and national rejuvenation," the two-day seminar has attracted more than 130 scholars and think tank experts from both sides of the Taiwan Straits. The 2023 seminar marks the biggest face-to-face gathering for scholars from both sides of the Taiwan Straits after the three-year COVID-19 pandemic.
Responding to Lai's "stopover" in the US, Pan Xianzhang, vice director of both the Taiwan Work Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said during the opening that the interests of Taiwan compatriots are damaged by each and every "stopover" in the US made by Taiwan secessionists.

The attempts by Taiwan secessionists to seek "independence" and create provocation in collusion with external forces in the name of making "stopovers" fully reveals that they are troublemakers undermining the peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, Pan said.

Noting that at present, cross-Straits relations are faced with major choices - peace or war, prosperity or recession - Pan urged Taiwan compatriots to stand on the right side of history, uphold the 1992 Consensus, firmly oppose Taiwan secessionists and interference by external forces, and join hands with compatriots in the Chinese mainland to maintain peaceful development of cross-Straits relations and advance integrated development across the Straits.

Experts and scholars attending the seminar said that the DPP authorities' collusion with external forces to seek "Taiwan independence" and create provocation is "pushing Taiwan to the brink of war" and has seriously undermined the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation. With the 2024 Taiwan regional election looming, the two sides of Straits are standing at a crossroads.

Xie Yu, a Taiwan affairs expert at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said 2023 is the first year of the resumption of cross-Straits exchanges after the COVID-19 pandemic, and the demand for exchanges, cooperation and integration accumulated by people on both sides of Straits need to be released. However, collusion between Taiwan secessionists and external forces has strained cross-Straits ties.

"Taiwan island should not become a powder keg in Asia. It should not become an ATM for US arms dealers. It should not become a runway for Western politicians," Xie said. "The mainland's moves against secessionists and external interference are actually meant to safeguard the prospects for peace across the Taiwan Straits and the well-being of the people on both sides."

Li Peng, head of the Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies of Xiamen University, said that the mainland has always emphasized that peaceful reunification is the first choice, and the mainland strives for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and efforts.

However, the strategic competition between the US and China has intensified, the collusion between secessionists and US has deepened, and cross-Straits exchanges have been hindered. If the DPP authorities and the US ignore the mainland's strategic patience and determination and continue to challenge its red line, the situation may go in a direction that no one is willing to go, Li said.

Liu Guoshen, head of the Collaborative Innovation Center for Peaceful Development of Cross-Straits Relation, told the Global Times on Thursday that the rapid development of the Chinese mainland has brought about a high degree of maladjustment in the US and Taiwan island, which then led to the appearance of "stress syndrome," and an "overly defensive mentality."

Over the past few years, every time the US played the Taiwan card, it gave the Chinese mainland an opportunity to leverage its power through countermeasures. The mainland is very clear where the line is, so if the US wants to play the Taiwan card constantly, the "Taiwan card" may be completely confiscated in the end, Liu said.

The Taiwan question needs to be resolved in line with the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the ultimate resolution lies in the development and strength of the Chinese mainland, Liu noted.

There is absolutely no possibility of Taiwan's independence. For Taiwan island, its only way out is to find its own value and positioning during the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, the expert said.

Taiwan independence is a dead end facing the choice between war and peace. The two sides need to deepen integration and development, which can achieve the maximum well-being of Taiwan compatriots and protect their political, economic and security interests, said Yang Yizhou, a vice chairman of the All-China Association of Taiwan Compatriots.