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With several days to go before the end of fiscal year 2023 on September 30, the massive expansion in US federal budget deficit is setting off alarm bells across the American economy. The deviation between US fiscal policy and Federal Reserve's monetary policies is like two gears pulling in opposite directions. The longer the deviation takes, the more financial risks will be accumulated throughout the US system, risking spillover effects on other economies.

The US Congress has just several days to avert a shutdown before the government runs out of money. The deadline for lawmakers to reach an agreement is midnight on September 30, after which government funding for essential services is set to run dry. This is not the first time that the government is faced with plunging into such as an awkward situation. The most recent shutdowns were in 2018, when the government was shut more than 30 days.

The last three years of public policy have had a major impact on the federal budget. The large increases in government spending far outpaced the growth in revenues, reportedly resulting in deficits of $2.7 trillion, $1.4 trillion, and $1.6 trillion in fiscal years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with the last month of 2023 based on current estimates. As the US national debt passes $33 trillion and a government shutdown looms, Wall Street and global investors inevitably feel the chill.

Some analysts believe the US economy has been on a strong recovery track since the beginning of the year. Such an uptrend should be attributed to multiple factors, among them an expansionary US fiscal policy that includes high levels of government spending is an important one. Increased government spending can take the form of both purchases of goods and services, which directly increases economic activity, and is transferred to individuals, indirectly increasing economic activity as individuals spend those funds.

Meanwhile, inflation rates increased for a second straight month in August, reversing previous declines as consumers continued to grapple with the rising cost of everyday goods. Since March 2022, the Fed has lifted interest rates 11 times and held them steady only twice, including September's pause, to control inflation. The substantial tightening in monetary policy has started to weigh on activity, increasing households' and firms' interest payments, and putting pressure on the real economy. It's understandable that an expansionary fiscal policy has been adopted to increase government spending amid inflation woes and it would be conducive to offset the negative impact of tightening monetary policies on the economy.

A year ago a majority of economists expected a US recession. So where'd it go? Increasing government spending may be one of the factors that have kept a recession at bay, at least so far. The more aggressive the Fed's tightening monetary policy is, the more government spending may be requested to stimulate growth. With 2024 presidential election just about one year away, the Biden faces a challenge: how to convince voters that he has the ability to boost growth while curb inflation.

In such a situation, the Biden administration probably hopes to maintain elevated government spending to promote growth. The tightening of monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy seem like the two ends of a seesaw, requiring a delicate balance to avoid a recession in the US economy.

However, what some Western economists tend not to notice are the side effects on the US economy. A big part of the story is the massive expansion in the federal budget deficit. Prospect of government shutdown poses a new threat to the US economy. For instance, a government shutdown would cost the US travel economy as much as $140 million a day, CNN reported, citing an analysis released by the US Travel Association. While the US economy is unlikely to implode any time soon, it faces significant and deep-rooted challenges. Moody's Investors Service said on Monday that US credit rating could come under pressure if the government shuts down.  

The US remains the world's largest economy, the mistakes it makes often result in strong spillover effects that not only harm itself but also burden the region and even the entire world economy.  Missteps over stubborn inflation and massive expansion in federal budget deficit make the country a real "time bomb" posing a danger to the world.

The city of Qingdao in East China's Shandong Province has strengthened the marine pasture construction as an important way to accelerate the transformation of maritime farming industry. There are 27 marine pastures under construction in Qingdao, of which 21 have been designated as national marine pasture demonstration areas.

Recently, 40,000 mu of Penaeus orientalis raised in Dingziwan area, Jimo welcomed this year's harvest season. This year, the local marine department cooperated with scientific research institutes to introduce the "Huanghai No.6" Penaeus orientalis. After five months of cultivation, the harvest period will last until the end of October. At present, there are Penaeus orientalis, Litopenaeus Vannamei and other varieties cultivated in the base, with an annual output of more than 2,000,000 kilograms of Penaeus orientalis and an increase of income of more than 200 million yuan for farmers annually.

With the continuous development of the industry, the demand for electricity in breeding bases is on the rise. The local power supply department actively promotes the upgrading and transformation of the power grid in aquaculture concentrated areas, optimizes the grid structure, and makes every effort to ensure the safety and reliability of power supply by means of night patrol temperature measurement and special line patrol. During the harvest period, the State Grid Qingdao Jimo Power Supply Company visits the aquaculture base every week to carry out safety inspections on electrical equipment, so as to help farmers solve practical difficulties and explain the knowledge of safe and reasonable power consumption.

Home to some of the country's richest marine resources, Qingdao has formed a complete industrial chain of mariculture processing. The local power supply department serves the electricity demands of marine pasture construction, mariculture company processing, cold chain logistics, speeds up the planning and construction of distribution network, and takes the initiative to come to the door to preach the policy of benefiting companies for mariculture processing companies, provide power technical support and support the safe use of electricity.

Shares of the heavily indebted Evergrande Group closed up about 28 percent on Tuesday as the company resumed its trade on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, several days after its founder Hui Kai Yan has been subject to mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of violating law and committing crimes.

Shares of Evergrande jumped as much as 42 percent during Tuesday’s trading. Another Evergrande stock, Evergrande Property Services Group, closed down about 3 percent. 

Real estate and property management services stocks fell on Tuesday’s closing, with Zhenro Properties Group dropping about 9 percent and Country Garden Services Holdings Co falling about 7 percent.

Last week, China Evergrande said it received notification from relevant authorities that Hui Ka Yan, an executive director of the company and chairman of the board of directors of the company, has been subject to mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of criminal wrongdoing.

"There is currently no other inside information in relation to the company that needs to be disclosed," Evergrande said in a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday. 

In September, several staff working in the wealth management unit of the crisis-hit property developer were placed under a criminal probe.

“The resumption of trading of two Evergrande stocks today has attracted much attention, on the one hand, because investors are concerned about Evergrande's current operating conditions and capital market performance, on the other hand, there is no trading in the A-share market due to holidays, and the Hong Kong stock market is more able to see the market performance of real estate stocks,” Yan Yuejin, a research director at Shanghai-based E-house China R&D Institute, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Yan noted that Evergrande shares had better-than-expected performance, which was in line with the laws of the capital market. Investors will continue to pay close attention to the situation of Evergrande's real estate projects, the expansion of its property services sector and the development direction of new-energy vehicles, he added.

Cooperation in the field of vaccine between China and Indonesia continue to expand and deepen to jointly fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, with multiple Chinese biological pharmaceutical enterprises and Indonesian companies signing agreements of cooperation during the 2022 G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia.

During the summit, Indonesian biological pharmaceutical company PT Etana Biotechnologies Indonesia (Etana) signed agreements with three Chinese companies including CanSino Biologics Inc, Walvax Biotechnology Co, and Abogen Biosciences.

The Global Times learned that the content of the cooperation including the agreements on the inhaled tuberculosis (TB) vaccine, Meningitis vaccine and the facilities for the construction of virus carrier platform reached by Etana and CanSino Biologics (CanSinoBIO), the agreement on the vaccine development of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and human papillomavirus vaccines between Etana and Walvax, and the agreement on the research and development of mRNA therapies including COVID-19 vaccines, Dengue vaccine and products related to tumors between Etana and Abogen.

According to Nathan Tirtana, founder and CEO of Etana, the company hope to take advantage of this opportunity to help the Indonesian Ministry of Health achieve its goals and ensure the fair distribution of vaccines, medicines and medical devices among different countries, especially the developing countries.

The Global Times learned from CanSinoBIO that the two companies will promote joint development and commercialization of innovative vaccine products based on their respective advantages and help Indonesia build a regional vaccine production center.

After the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, cooperation in the field of health between China and Indonesia has increased. Particularly, the cooperation in vaccine has always been at the forefront of the world.

China was the first country to cooperate with Indonesia in the research and development of vaccines and specific medicines for COVID-19. China has also supported Indonesia in establishing a regional vaccine production center and is one of the largest suppliers of COVID-19 vaccines to Indonesia. Meanwhile, Indonesia was also one of the first countries to provide material assistance to China after the COVID-19 outbreak.

So far, COVID-19 vaccines of multiple Chinese companies including Sinovac Biotech, China National Biotec Group (CNBG), CanSinoBIO and BioKangtai have been approved for use in Indonesia.

Sinovac has supplied more than 280 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Indonesia including over 130 million doses exported as semi-finished products, the Global Times learned from the company.

BioKangtai started production of the adenovirus vector vaccine for COVID-19 in February of 2021, and the vaccine was approved for emergency use in Indonesia on October 31, 2021. The company signed a purchase agreement on the vaccine with an Indonesian partner in November 2021. Over 30 million doses of the company's adenovirus vector vaccine were exported to Indonesia in 2021.

In March this year, CanSinoBIO's adenovirus type-5 vector-based COVID-19 vaccine (Ad5-nCoV) was approved by BPOM Indonesia as booster shots following inactivated vaccine, while CNBG's inactivated vaccine, which had previously been approved as emergency use in Indonesia, was also approved there in March as a heterologous booster.

Apart from the cooperation in the combat against COVID-19 between the two countries, Chinese and Indonesian experts and scientists of TB and respiratory infectious diseases also discussed and shared their latest research results on the elimination of TB with innovative vaccine technologies during a forum in Bali on Wednesday.

The technology used in CanSinoBio's adenovirus vector vaccine can also be used in the TB vaccine, the company said at the forum.

Imran Pambudi, National TB Program Manager and Deputy Director of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control at the Ministry of Health of Indonesia, thinks highly of the contribution made by CanSinoBio in the research and development of inhaled TB vaccine and the achievements made by the cooperation between China and Indonesia in the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic.

Chinese researchers have successfully proven the existence of the very massive first-generation stars, which are the oldest stars in the universe. After years of work, they have discovered the chemical signature of these stars for the first time, a breakthrough that holds significant importance for understanding the origins and evolution of stars.

The research findings were published online in the international scientific journal Nature on Wednesday, providing an answer to the longstanding question in the scientific community regarding the existence of the very massive first-generation stars during the early stages of the universe, approximately 13.8 billion years ago.

The researchers from the National Astronomical Observatory of China analyzed over 5 million stellar spectra obtained from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) in North China's Hebei Province. Through this analysis, they identified a star located in the halo of the Milky Way, approximately 3,327 light-years away from Earth, with a mass approximately half that of the Sun.

This star exhibited a metal-poor characteristic, indicating its alignment with the characteristics of second-generation stars formed after the demise of the first-generation stars.

The first-generation stars were supermassive stars with masses ranging from 140 to 260 times that of the Sun, making them the oldest stars in the universe. These stars existed over 13 billion years ago but had short lifespans of only 3 million years before undergoing supernova explosions, giving rise to the second-generation stars observed by the researchers.

By observing and studying the second-generation star, the researchers will be able to infer the mass and characteristics of its preceding generation of stars, said Xing Qianfan, a deputy researcher from National Astronomical Observatory of China.

Xing said that the research team will utilize the massive dataset from LAMOST to deduce the distribution of stars with different masses in the earliest first-generation stars. This will enable them to explore the evolutionary history of the entire universe and the evolution of stars.

Members of a post-disaster reconstruction working group recently walked into the flooded Xinle village, located in Wuchang city of Northeast China's Heilongjiang Province, to investigate and identify flood-hit houses. According to estimates, review of all the homes in 24 townships will complete in three to four days.

In the aftermath of Typhoon Doksuri, Heilongjiang and multiple other regions in China, including Beijing and North China's Hebei Province, have ramped up efforts to restore order for people living in inundated areas. 

In Guyu village, Wuchang city, more than 2,000 mu (133 hectares) of corn has been soaked in water. The local emergency department has transferred large-scale pumping facilities to carry out 24-hour drainage of farmland water. Wuchang has mobilized six post-disaster technical guidance groups to provide technical guidance for villagers in 24 towns and villages for draining field water and spraying pesticides to prevent and control pests and diseases. 

At Sunday midnight, a train carrying 690 tons of Wuchang rice left the local train station. This was the first train of food supplies transported from Wuchang station after the resumption of the railway, which was cut off by flooding. 

People wearing protective gear for disinfection in Shangzhi, one of the seriously stricken cities in Heilongjiang, have completed three rounds of disinfection across more than 320,000 square meters of flood-affected areas.

In response to the flooding of farmland, Hebei Province organized experts and technicians to head to the front lines of the disaster resistance to guide post-disaster agricultural production. At the same time, the province promptly redirected 1.06 million kilograms of seeds of short-growth crops such as cabbage and spinach to prepare for replanting to minimize farmers' losses.

In Zhuozhou, Hebei, four shopping malls and 29 supermarket chains have resumed operation and schools are also stepping up efforts to clean up sludge and disinfect areas to ensure the timely return of students to campus in September. Hebei officials had said earlier that it plans to complete the reconstruction in two years and will take efforts to ensure affected residents are able to return to their homes prior to the approach of winter. 

In Beijing, the lives of local people have gradually resumed. Most recently, six A-level scenic spots in the Fangshan district have reopened. The Fangshan district has labeled regions into three colors based on the severity of flood impact - red, yellow and green - serving as a more efficient method to solve disaster relief work. Officials from Beijing said they have mapped out a plan to improve the city's disaster relief capabilities and the development of flooded regions over the next three years.

Not only have local departments in flood-stricken regions moved quickly to deal with disaster relief, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs urged agricultural departments at all levels to make efforts to alleviate disaster and promote vegetable production.

Meanwhile, to deal with future emergent heavy rainfall and floods and improve the adaptability of urban infrastructure to withstand extreme weather, observers have suggested that the impact infrastructure in some high-risk areas may face from extreme rainstorms brought by climate change be re-evaluated to determine whether the existing level of defense needs to be upgraded, as well as to improve the vigilance and preparedness of local departments and strengthen resilience in the face of a changing climate.

Some water control experts said this round of heavy rainfall reminded some places to make up for the shortcomings of local flood control projects. They pointed out some northern cities in recent years have relaxed their vigilance and constructed flood storage areas in a disorderly manner, such as when building houses, locals may take soil from earth dams, which weakens the flood control capacity of levees.

Sun Shao, a senior researcher at Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, told the Global Times that challenges encountered by cities in northern China due to deficient drainage systems, limited river networks, and inadequate urban green space planning, makes them highly vulnerable to flooding during unexpected heavy rainfall.

Cheng Xiaotao, a deputy chief engineer from the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), told the Global Times that besides flood control projects, effective communication about the severity of extreme weather among meteorological, hydrological and water conservancy departments is crucial. For instance, emergency command departments can compile data about the specific precipitation and flow rate of rivers and inform the public in detail.

As heavy rainfall events intensify, there is a higher probability of sudden flash floods, mudslides, and other disasters, Sun said. He explained that reviewing historical patterns, during the 1950s to 1970s, the main rain belt was concentrated in northern China, which later shifted to southern China in the 1980s and 1990s. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the main rain belt has gradually moved northward again.

China to take measures to safeguard food safety, urging Japan to withdraw contaminated water dumping plan： FM

China is considering holding degree holders who use artificial intelligence (AI) to ghostwrite their theses legally responsible. The draft of the Degree Law was submitted to the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress, China's top legislature, for deliberation on Monday.

The draft lays out legal responsibilities for actions such as degree holders using or impersonating another's identity to gain admission qualifications, employing artificial intelligence to author thesis papers, and institutions granting degrees unlawfully, as reported by the media on Monday. 

Academic misconduct includes plagiarism, forgery, data falsification, using artificial intelligence to produce a thesis, impersonating another's identity to obtain admission qualifications, and securing admission qualifications and graduation certificates through illicit means like favoritism and cheating. The draft also addresses other illegal or irregular behaviors that, when exhibited during the study period, should prevent the awarding of a degree.

The draft states that if an individual who has already obtained a degree is found to have used illegal means to do so, the degree-granting institution must revoke the degree certificate. This decision should be made following a review by the degree evaluation committee.

House dust mites surround us. Burrowing cheerfully into our pillowcases, rugs and furniture, the mites feast on our dead skin cells, breaking them down into small particles they can digest.

Now that your skin is crawling, relax. If you’re like most people, you will never know they are there.

An unlucky minority, however, is very aware of dust mites. Some of these unfortunate folks have a simple dust allergy. But others have an additional condition called atopic dermatitis, often referred to as eczema. They react to the presence of dust — or rather, dust mites — with hideous itching and redness. It wasn’t totally clear what, exactly, caused people with dermatitis to react so badly to dust mites.

It turns out that these people react not to the dust mite, but to its dinner — to the breakdown products of the person’s own skin. The finding helps explain why people with atopic dermatitis react so badly to dust mites, and it provides several new options to help treat the itch. It also resolves a decade-long debate in dermatology — why people with dermatitis are scratching in the first place.

Inside out vs. outside in
Atopic dermatitis is known for producing red, cracked and dry skin and, of course, the itching. People usually get diagnosed in childhood. Sometimes it goes away as kids get older, but it still affects between 9 and 30 percent of adults in the United States. Patients with dermatitis who react to dust are told to avoid dusty places and use special pillowcases. For the worst outbreaks, they are often prescribed a steroid cream. In some cases, they can end up in the hospital.

But what causes the itch in the first place? For the past 10 years, scientists have been scratching away at two hypotheses — one called “inside out,” and the other called “outside in.”

The “inside out” hypothesis came first, explains Graham Ogg, a dermatologist with the Medical Research Council Human Immunology Unit at the University of Oxford. The idea was that the immune system was overreacting to normal things: Dermatitis was an inside problem with the immune system itself.

In 2006, however, researchers reported in Nature Genetics that deficiencies in a protein called filaggrin were associated with atopic dermatitis. Now, it’s estimated that 20 to 30 percent of people with atopic dermatitis are also deficient in filaggrin, a protein in the outermost layer of the skin.

“It’s important for moisturizing the skin, keeping the skin hydrated,” explains Ogg. If people with dermatitis are deficient in filaggrin, then “the primary problem isn’t the immune system, it’s the barrier function in the skin.” If the barrier breaks down, more irritants can get in, prompting the immune response and the intolerable itch. So, the “outside in” hypothesis was born. In this view, the immune system wasn’t overreacting; instead it was reacting properly to the avalanche of aggravations it was faced with.

But what if these two hypotheses weren’t at odds, Ogg wondered, and instead were two sides of the same coin? To find out, Ogg and his group began by looking at a molecule called CD1a. This molecule is produced in the skin, and specializes in presenting bits of foreign matter to T cells — the immune system responders that mount attacks against foreign invaders.

It turns out that the CD1a molecules responded to extract-of-house-dust-mite — the delightful concoction that people get scratched with when they are tested for a dust allergy. And when they react, it’s because of CD1a molecules.

To find out if people with dermatitis had more CD1a than people without the condition, the scientists used suction to give eczema sufferers and healthy volunteers large blisters on their arms. The blisters were harvested for their skin and blood cells. And in patients with atopic dermatitis, those skin and blood cells were stuffed with CD1a, far more than in healthy controls.

But what was the CD1a reacting to? Usually CD1a senses fat molecules, presenting bits of them to the immune system to prep it for attack. Ogg and his group assumed that if they analyzed house dust mites, they would find the lipid or fat responsible.
Not quite. Instead, they found a protein called phospholipase A2. Phospholipase is an enzyme that dust mites produce that breaks down skin cells, producing fat molecules the mites can digest. CD1a, it turns out, responds to those lipids — reacting to the house dust mite’s dinner. Reacting, really, to the breakdown products of human skin.

This seems like support for the “inside out” hypothesis. CD1a is part of the immune system, and the immune system does seem to be over-reacting.

Filaggrin also had a role to play. The protein doesn’t just create a barrier to keep the skin moisturized — it’s also anti-inflammatory, Ogg’s group showed. If a skin sample was challenged with essence of dust mite, adding filaggrin could damp down the immune response. But eczema patients with low or no filaggrin had no defense. Their skin was more permeable, and there was nothing to stop the inflammation. The “outside in” hypothesis —the idea that the barrier function is the broken part of the system – is true too. Ogg and his colleagues report their findings February 10 in Science Translational Medicine.

“It links together the observations very nicely,” says Muzalifah Haniffa, a dermatologist at Newcastle University in England. It never was a matter of “inside out” or “outside in.” The two are inextricably linked.

Eat like a dust mite, sting like a bee?
So, to recap: As dust mites chow down on human skin, they cause damage to the cells. People with dermatitis have immune systems that detect the products of the damage and react, causing itching and pain. Filaggrin, when present, can tamp down the response. But when absent, nothing stops the itch.

The study shows filaggrin is far more than a simple barrier protein. Instead it directly affects immune responses in the skin, something that’s never been seen before, Haniffa notes.

This isn’t the first time that Ogg’s group has come across phospholipase A2. “Bee venom also contains phospholipase. In fact it contains massive amounts,” Ogg explains. Knowing that bee venom and dust mites have something in common helps scientists to understand one of the ways that the immune system senses damage to skin — and gives them another option to consider for treatment.

Right now, clinical trials are focused on stopping the inflammatory proteins produced further down the line. But, Haniffa says, scientists might try methods to increase the amount of filaggrin in the skin — beefing up the barrier against dust mite incursions and reducing the immune response at the same time. Other drugs or creams could target phospholipase A2, inactivating it. Without phospholipase, dust mites wouldn’t be able to break down skin cells, halting any immune reaction.

And that means we can hope for a new day. One with, hopefully, no itch.

A conspicuous “chirp” heralded the first detection of gravitational waves. But some future measurements could be more like hushed murmurs.

Scientists may soon be able to tease out a faint signal of gravitational waves from black hole collisions too distant to be detected directly, scientists with LIGO, the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory, report in the April 1 Physical Review Letters. A detection could come in as few as three years — considerably faster than scientists had dreamed possible, the new analysis suggests.
When LIGO detected the stretching and squeezing of spacegenerated by a pair of merging black holes, scientists were wowed (SN: 03/05/16, p. 6). The signal stood out well above spurious bumps and wiggles in the data, which are ever-present in LIGO’s extremely sensitive detectors. It rose swiftly in frequency — when converted to sound waves, it was reminiscent of a bird’s chirp — a hallmark of the black holes’ inward-spiraling cosmic dance.

But such obvious swells are outnumbered by a sea of smaller ripples. With these ripples, “you’re looking at black holes which are much farther away,” says LIGO spokesperson Gabriela González of Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.

LIGO is not sensitive enough to detect these waves outright, but by comparing the data recorded by LIGO’s separate detectors — one in Louisiana and one in Washington state — scientists could identify patterns revealing the presence of the background waves. Such a measurement would allow scientists to compare black hole populations of different ages and could help nail down the conditions under which black hole pairs form.

“My honest opinion was, ‘I’m going to be lucky if we see this result in my lifetime,’” says physicist Emanuele Berti of the University of Mississippi in Oxford, who is not involved with LIGO. He has changed his tune. “Nature was good to us, and now we think that we’re going to be able to see them pretty soon.”

That’s because new estimates of the rate of such black hole mergers are higher than many scientists expected. Using models of binary black hole populations combined with LIGO data, scientists find that LIGO could be sensitive to nearly 2,000 such black hole mergers a year, meeting their most optimistic predictions.

The possibility shows LIGO’s versatility, González says. “There are good prospects of all kinds — it’s not just detections of single events.”