爱上海同城

China is leading the world in the use of generative artificial intelligence (AI), according to a survey released on Tuesday. Analysts said it signals that the country is making technological advances and there are bright prospects for the domestic AI sector.

AI use by respondents from China has surged to 83 percent, according to the report by US AI and analytics software company SAS and Coleman Parkes Research. The survey targeted 1,600 decision makers across key global markets.

The survey found upticks in generative AI use across the world, with the largest increases in China. To be specific, the adoption rate of generative AI in China was higher than in 16 other countries and regions, surpassing the US where only 65 percent of respondents reported using generative AI.

The market size of AI-generated content in China’s e-commerce industry is projected to triple in 2024, reaching 1.2 billion yuan ($171.4 million). This significant increase demonstrates the growing importance and effectiveness of generative AI tools in enhancing brand sales and driving traffic for e-commerce brands, Wu Bin, CEO of infimind, a Beijing-based AI technology solutions provider in the fashion and e-commerce industry, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Yan Junjie, CEO of Shanghai-based emerging startup MiniMax, told the Global Times that the rapid adoption of large language models (LLMs) and enterprise data for developing custom generative AI applications will lead to significant growth in the market. The long-term prospects for generative AI are promising, Yan said.

“As the cost of LLM services for enterprises continues to decrease, we can expect Chinese companies to increasingly embrace generative AI at a faster pace in the coming years,” Yan noted.

A recent UN report showed that China topped the list for generative AI patent filings in the past decade. Industry insiders said all these signs indicate that China has surged ahead in the generative AI landscape.

Generative AI has continued to transform multiple business sectors in China. As its adoption in various sectors accelerates, benefits from its application include reduced costs and increased revenue, observers said.

In terms of specific industries, respondents working in TMT, retailing, insurance, banking and life sciences report the largest increase in generative AI use.

Generative AI can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. Some of the most common generative models in use today are large language models – like the one that powers ChatGPT, which is capable of creating language and text – and diffusion models, which create images and video.

Since ChatGPT burst onto the scene in November 2022, generative AI has come a long way. Leveraging its large market size and homegrown innovations, China has seen a number of generative AI applications emerge, including short video creation, e-commerce and education.

For instance, in e-commerce and short video platforms, generative AI can offer exceptional levels of personalization and empower more dynamic and efficient content creation.

Last week, a report by the UN's World Intellectual Property Organization showed China was leading the generative patent race, filing more than 38,000 between 2014 and 2023, against 6,276 filed by the US in the same period. The top patent applicants in China include TikTok owner ByteDance, Tencent, Ping An Insurance Group and Baidu.

Generative AI is driving economic growth. A 2023 report from McKinsey estimates that generative AI is set to add up to $4.4 trillion of value to the global economy annually. This would increase the impact of AI by 15 to 40 percent. According to another recent report on China, McKinsey predicted that generative AI is expected to be a significant contributor to China’s economy, with the potential to add up to $2 trillion to GDP. This is part of a broader $6 trillion economic impact expected from AI in China.

Following a claim that BMW China will withdraw from the "price war" in the car market, the company said in a statement on Friday that in the second half of 2024, it will focus on the quality of its business in the Chinese market and support dealers to operate steadily.

The response came after a blogger said on social media that due to serious losses caused by the price war, BMW China will stabilize product prices from July to ease the operating pressure on dealers, even if it means a reduction in sales.

According to domestic financial news portal yicai.com, BMW China suddenly sent a letter to all dealers at the end of May, saying that in view of the market background and the huge impact of domestic brands, it would be issuing substantial subsidies and relief policies to 4S stores.

The policies are intended to help dealers overcome short-term difficulties, relieve business pressure, and jointly provide excellent products, services and luxury travel experiences for Chinese consumers, yicai.com reported, citing a person with knowledge of the issue.

In the first half of this year, BMW sold 375,947 vehicles in the Chinese market, including BMW and Mini brands, down 4 percent from the same period last year.

China's total automobile sales reached 14.047 million in the first half, an increase of 6.1 percent year-on-year, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Analysts said that the price war in the passenger car market has been driven partly by the country's auto trade-in policy, which encourages scrapping of more polluting vehicles and trading up to more fuel-efficient cars or new-energy vehicles (NEVs).

The policy is part of China's plan to encourage large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods. A fixed one-time subsidy of up to 10,000 yuan ($1,379) is available for individuals who scrap vehicles that only reach China's level III emission standard or below.

NEV producers are gaining an increasing share of the market, and this trend will continue in the coming years, industry observers said. This will create fierce competition between newer and older players in the sector, and this process will continue for several years until a new industry landscape is formed.

The EU should listen more to internal voices within the bloc before announcing any decision to impose additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), Chinese experts said on Sunday, as EU member states are reportedly set to vote on Monday on the trade matter.

As trade talks are ongoing, experts stressed that cooperation, not confrontation, is needed in bilateral trade relations.

EU member states are set to vote on imposing provisional tariffs on China-made EVs, Reuters reported, citing sources, in what it described "the first test of support for Brussels' landmark trade case."

The report said that Germany, whose vehicle makers obtained one-third of their sales in the Chinese market last year, is set to abstain in Monday's vote in the spirit of "critical solidarity" with the European Commission (EC).

The first vote for EU member states is written and confidential, and it is non-binding. At the provisional stage, the EC has full power to impose duties, although it consults EU members and is supposed to take their positions into account, the report said.

These internal consultations, which would take place on Monday, are unlikely to have much of an effect on the EC's final judgment, as China-EU negotiations are ongoing and the final outcome is likely to be determined in November, Ye Bin, a research fellow specializing in EU laws at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.

The Chinese expert urged the EU to listen more to internal voices within the bloc, especially industry players that will bear the brunt should the tariffs be imposed.

Germany's reported move serves as the latest and important reflection of opposition to EV tariffs targeting China. German industries may be worried about the consequence from the additional tariffs and possible trade tensions on both sides, so they chose to express some concerns, Ye said.

"Germany's reported abstention on this issue shows that it neither explicitly opposes it nor does it want to intensify conflicts, which may reflect Germany's desire to seek balance within its industry and tone down some concerns in its industry," Ye said. "But it also reflects that the German industry's opposition to EU policies still plays a certain role."

On July 4, the EC ruled that the individual duties applying to the three sampled Chinese producers are 17.4 percent for BYD, 19.9 percent for Geely and 37.6 percent for SAIC. Other EV producers in China, which cooperated in the investigation but were not sampled, are subject to the 20.8 percent weighted average duty.

China has been an active player in trade talks over the EV tariffs and the EU, including its member countries, has been in talks with China over the issue.

"The Chinese government has used the utmost sincerity, strived for maximum dialogue and tried its best to do what it should do," Bai Ming, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Sunday.

However, the actual trade talks are still full of challenges and will be difficult, Bai said, urging the EU to meet China halfway.

It is important for the EU to understand that cooperation, and not confrontation, should play a key role in bilateral economic and trade ties, Bai said. The EU has been a direct beneficiary of cooperation with the Chinese car industry, highlighted by the increasing investment that has helped facilitate the region's green transformation.

According to the report "Greening Europe: Report on Development of Chinese NEV Manufacturers in Europe," co-authored by the China Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (CCCEU) and the China Economic Information Service, which was launched on June 19 in Brussels, Chinese companies in the new-energy vehicle (NEV) sector have been increasing their investment and cooperation in Europe.

As of the end of 2023, Chinese NEV companies had set up more than 20 research and development centers and production bases in Europe, creating jobs and establishing close partnerships with local supply chains, and boosting the development of Europe's new-energy industry, according to the CCCEU.

Also at that point, China had 8.596 million charging facilities, with public charging exceeding 80 percent in 17 major cities, the CCCEU said. In contrast, the EU had about 630,000 public charging stations, falling far short of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association's prediction of needing a staggering 8.8 million by 2030 to meet consumer demand.

Without additional tariffs, both sides will share greater benefits, given the industry's high complementarity, which requires more cooperation and not confrontation, experts said.

"Enhancing collaboration with China, instead of pursuing decoupling and succumbing to trade protectionism, will enable the EU to optimize its interests in the industry chain upgrade and the transition to EVs," Bai said.

China's GDP expanded 5 percent to reach 61.68 trillion yuan ($8.49 trillion) in the first half of 2024, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, demonstrating the resilience and innate strength of the world's second-largest economy.

In the second quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.7 percent year-on-year, edging down slightly from the 5.3-percent growth recorded in the first quarter. 

Chinese officials and analysts pointed out that this slowdown is just a short-term fluctuation that won't sway the economy from its sustained recovery momentum. The fundamentals of the economy remain positive and are set to improve in the second half, they stressed, listing a number of standout economic drivers including ongoing industrial upgrade, robust exports, as well as substantial investment in high-end manufacturing.

The 5-percent stable growth in the first half also puts China on a firm track to hitting its full-year economic growth target of around 5 percent, economists said, which is a new piece of evidence squarely refuting certain foreign media outlets' bearish views on the Chinese economy. China's GDP growth is expected to lead major economies this year, further consolidating the country's role as a key engine and a stabilizer of the world economy.  

As the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) started its third plenary session in Beijing on Monday morning, observers also expected the reform-themed plenum to channel new impetus into second-half economic growth and decisively lead the country to overcome rising headwinds and march toward Chinese modernization.

"The Chinese economy's operations have remained stable despite a complex global and domestic environment, achieving not only growth in quantity but also improvement in quality [in the first six months]. This is a praiseworthy and solid economic transcript," an NBS spokesperson said on Monday, according to a statement on the bureau's website. 

The spokesperson also stressed that for an economy as large as China's, maintaining a medium-to-high growth rate of around 5 percent is in itself also truly remarkable.

Growth highlights

Analysts said that the first-half economic growth is "stable and moderate," and it more importantly mirrors a comprehensive picture of the recovery of the world's second-largest economy: while being confronted with challenges such as insufficient effective demand, prolonged property adjustment and weak social expectations, it is undergoing a stage of transformation toward a high-quality development model under which the development of new drivers, such as new quality productive forces, are gaining steam. 

Cao Heping, an economist from Peking University, told the Global Times on Monday that despite the slightly slower GDP growth rate in the second quarter, the country's economic transformation and upgrading is picking up speed. He highlighted the country's compelling export data, rapid development of new industries such as electric vehicles and investment in sci-tech innovations.

Factory activity remains the main engine for the economy, partly fueled by resilient overseas demand. The value added of industrial enterprises above a designated size jumped 6 percent year-on-year in the first six months, with the development of new quality productive forces showing more palpable drive.

Breaking the figures down, the output of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles and integrated circuit products jumped 51.6 percent, 34.3 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively, in the same period. 

In the first six months, China's exports grew a stunning 6.9 percent in yuan-denominated terms, customs data showed on Friday. As major economies like the US and EU bring down interest rates, the strength of external demand is accumulating, which will be favorable to China's foreign trade throughout the year, analysts said.  

Meanwhile, retail sales of consumer goods in the first six months were up 3.7 percent, and fixed-asset investment edged up by 3.9 percent, NBS data showed. In particular, investment in high-tech industries soared an impressive 10.6 percent year-on-year.

The investment data is a reflection of the country's competitiveness in the manufacturing sector, particularly high-end manufacturing, Darius Tang, associate director of corporate at Fitch Bohua, told the Global Times on Monday. 

"Also, with the acceleration of special local government bonds as well as the 1 trillion yuan ultra long-term special treasury bond issuance, the gradual formation of physical workloads will help infrastructure investments, especially those that utilize funds from treasury bonds, to maintain a moderate growth rate," Tang noted.

As the gaps between the supply and demand sides narrow, the slew of data also sends an encouraging sign of a more even economic recovery track, analysts pointed out.

On track for annual target

The 5-percent GDP growth in the first half of 2024 is consistent with the government's target set at the beginning of the year. However, immediately after the data was released, certain Western media outlets cited the slowdown in the second quarter to smear the Chinese economy. Some exaggerated the downward pressure faced by the country and abruptly hinted that China could derail from its annual GDP target.

While acknowledging the increasing challenges that are weighing on current economic operations, the NBS spokesperson explained that the slowdown in the April-June period was also influenced by short-term factors such as extreme weather conditions and frequent rain and flood disasters.

The spokesperson called for a comprehensive evaluation of the situation. "We should not only see the 'form' of short-term fluctuations but also grasp the 'trend' of long-term development," he noted. 

Although uncertainties and pressures remain and could intensify in the second half, those are problems that are encountered as progress is being made and will ultimately be solved through promoting development, he said, stressing that the relevant Chinese departments have formed a sober understanding of these issues and taken a series of measures to address them. 

Tian Yun, an economist based in Beijing, told the Global Times on Monday that the second half, particularly the third quarter, offers a window of opportunity for further easing the economic downsides, particularly in helping the bottoming-out of the property sector and shoring up of consumer demand. Improvements in those fields are critical in keeping China on track for the 5-percent whole-year target, or from a long-term perspective, marching toward the secondary centenary goal. 

"The annual GDP goal is within reach, but it will be an assiduous journey to achieve it," he stressed.

This week, the eyes of the world have been on the reform-themed third plenum, which started on Monday and will last until Thursday. The plenum will primarily examine issues related to further comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Analysts said that the fundamentals of China's economic recovery are expected to further stabilize and improve in the second half upon the pivotal gathering, during which the CPC leadership will map out a blueprint for the country's long-term development.

"It will be worth watching how Chinese authorities promote further reforms and formulate top-level design to tackle emerging challenges in the second half. Those measures will be key to stabilizing social expectations," Tian noted. 

"More pro-growth measures will be launched to bolster economic prospects," Tian said, while suggesting that authorities accelerate the issuance of special government bonds and further strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments to lower the overall financing costs for the real economy.

"Amid rising geopolitical tensions and sluggish economic recovery, a stable Chinese economy remains an anchor for global economic stability," Cao said.

After China released an investigation report on Volt Typhoon, the US, in order to cover up the evidence, instructed related companies to change the content of report they released previously, completely disregarding the traces left during the operation, the Global Times learned on Sunday. However, the US Embassy in China and company involved stayed silent when the Global Times reached for comments.

On May 24, 2023, the cybersecurity authorities from The Five Eyes countries - the US, the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand, issued a joint cybersecurity advisory, claiming that they had discovered a cluster of activities of interest associated with a "China state-sponsored cyber actor," known as Volt Typhoon, and these activities "affected networks across US critical infrastructure sectors."

In response, China's National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC), National Engineering Laboratory for Computer Virus Prevention Technology and 360 Digital Security Group conducted a joint investigation and further analysis found that Volt Typhoon has more correlation with ransomware group and other cybercriminals.

After the release of the investigation report on "Volt Typhoon" in April this year, the Chinese joint investigation team continued to track the actions and intentions of the US in creating the "Volt Typhoon" false narrative.

"We conducted verification analysis based on the indicators of compromise (IoCs) of the so-called 'Volt Typhoon' organization in the US, and found that this organization is closely related to a ransomware criminal group called Dark Power disclosed by ThreatMon, a US cybersecurity vendor," a researcher from CVERC told the Global Times on Sunday.

The report directly quotes the content of the ThreatMon report and discloses the associated IP address information hidden behind the back cover image." The researcher said that after the release of the investigation report, the US side instructed ThreatMon to openly change the content of the report, the entire report has been expanded from 17 pages to 20 pages, but the crucial evidence of the associated IP address, which was originally located behind the back cover image, is now nowhere to be found.

The Global Times has sent an email to the US Embassy in China asking for comments on the contents revealed in the report. The US Embassy in China has not responded and had remained silent as of press time.

After CVERC released a report on April 15 disclosing the false narrative of "Volt Typhoon", the US Embassy in China and Microsoft which were contacted by the Global Times for comment and gave no response as of press time.

During a press conference on Monday, Lin Jian, spokesperson of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the latest report further revealed that this disinformation campaign is conceived by NSA, FBI and other members of the US intelligence community with the participation of congressional China hawks and multiple federal agencies as well as cybersecurity agencies from other Five Eye countries, and aimed to manipulate public opinion.

Till this day, the US still owes us an explanation after the previous report was released, and the US NSA chief continues to spread disinformation about "Volt Typhoon," said Lin.

What is worse, the latest report exposed that the US government has been pressuring a cybersecurity company and asking it to rewrite its tech analysis that proves "Volt Typhoon" to be a ransomware group. This is a clumsy cover-up tactic and clearly has not and will not work, Lin said.

He noted that China strongly condemns the irresponsible behavior of the US. The US still owes us an explanation, and should stop its smears and vilification against China at once. We urge the US to act responsibly and contribute to the peace and security of the cyberspace.

ThreatMon did not respond to Global Times's inquiries about revising and changing the report as of press time.

Zhuo Hua, an expert on international affairs at the School of International Relations at Beijing Foreign Studies University told the Global Times on Monday that, "The new report more comprehensively exposes the US's intentions and operational process of framing China. China has mastered a complete chain of evidence, sufficient to prove that the so-called 'Volt Typhoon' is orchestrated by US intelligence agencies. Technically, it is self-produced and self-sold, and politically, it is a self-directed and self-acted international false narrative, which can be fully defined as a cognitive domain operation against China."

"In the field of international cybersecurity, the US is the least qualified to point fingers because it has no national credibility in this area. Over the past twenty years, the world has witnessed the US fabricate false intelligence to launch wars. Its intelligence agencies recklessly conduct cyber espionage and surveillance on countries, including its allies, deploy cyber weapons, and paralyze critical infrastructure of other countries through actual APT attacks. The US is the primary threat that supports cyberattacks with national power."

"Since China released the relevant investigation report in April, the US has not responded, precisely because the facts revealed by China and the US's actions in international cyberspace have left the US unable to respond," said Zhuo.

"Another alarming trend is that behind the 'Volt Typhoon' hype, we clearly see the motive of intelligence agencies to expand their powers, interest groups to squeeze Chinese companies out of the US infrastructure market, and anti-China politicians to emphasize 'national security.' This tacit understanding, even collusion, among various sectors—government, business, and finance—is leveraging the US strategy to contain China to gain political and economic benefits domestically. Once this atmosphere is formed, the US will undoubtedly concoct other incidents in the future, harming China's interests and China-US relations."

While the US and Western leaders gathered in Washington to mark NATO's 75th anniversary on Tuesday, their efforts to showcase "strength" and "unity" are being overshadowed by increasing internal divisions on global issues, challenges in supporting Ukraine, uncertainties stemming from the upcoming US presidential election, and the rise of right-wing nationalism across Europe, which make analysts view this year's NATO summit as "outwardly tough but inwardly brittle."

The recent hype over the "China threat" by Western media ahead of the three-day NATO summit and accusations of China supporting Russia once again reveal the US' and NATO's intentions to extend their influence into the Asia-Pacific region for geopolitical gain. It underscores NATO's origins in the Cold War era, designed as a military tool to bolster US hegemony, which critics said only exacerbates global instability and discord.

Leaders of NATO's 32 member countries are scheduled to conduct a three-day summit in Washington, DC from Tuesday to Thursday. On its website, the US Department of State gave a full introduction about NATO and the summit, saying that the allies will discuss an important agenda that includes "affirming unwavering support for Ukraine," "strengthening deterrence and defense posture" and "ensuring Allies meet their commitments to invest in their own defense, as well as collective defense." 

The NATO summit aims to project "unity" and "shared interests" outwardly, but internally, there are increasing anxieties and worries among member countries, Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University's Academy of Regional and Global Governance, told the Global Times on Tuesday. 

For example, the rise of far-right forces in Europe, political challenges faced by Germany and France and other core European countries, and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House have all added uncertainties within NATO to reach consensus on major issues, Cui said.

The Tuesday summit came as some Democrats called on Joe Biden to step aside over his fitness and age, while Biden declined and defended his 2024 campaign. Also in Europe, there is a major political turmoil in France - although the left-wing parties' alliance won the decisive round of France's legislative election on Sunday night, a parliament without a majority may lead to uncertainty in France, according to media reports. 

Cui said that while this summit may ultimately seek political outcomes, it risks entanglement in internal discord. NATO hopes to demonstrate to the outside world that it is capable of forging a new consensus through overcoming divisions, but it is haunted by political fragility in both Europe and the US. "This makes this year's summit outwardly tough but inwardly brittle," Cui remarked.

On the webpage of the NATO summit, the US Department of State listed "affirming unwavering support for Ukraine" at the top of its agenda, and claims that "allies will be joined by Ukraine for a meeting" to advance their "strong support" for Ukraine and "close collaboration to help build a bridge to Ukraine's future membership." 

Some Western media reported that during the summit, NATO will announce a "historic" aid package to support Ukraine, including crucial air defense systems and 40 billion  euros ($43.3 billion) in military support for Ukraine each year. 

Since its last summit, NATO has adjusted its strategy to support Ukraine, aiming to integrate short-term aid into a long-term security framework with more systematic and consistent policies. This shift reflects NATO's concerns about the potential disruption of Ukrainian support due to political changes in the US and the EU, Cui said, noting that the discussion of a "bridge to membership" plan for Ukraine to NATO at the Washington summit underscores this adjustment.

However, these efforts are still deemed insufficient by Ukraine, and convincing member countries to allocate substantial aid to Ukraine remains challenging, especially as many of them are grappling with domestic economic contraction and energy crises, a Beijing-based military expert told the Global Times on condition of anonymity. 

The expert noted that the Ukrainian government has struggled to achieve decisive victories on the battlefield, disappointing several European countries and testing their patience and confidence in forming a unified front against Russia.

NATO shifts to Asia

Aside from the goal of presenting a united front against Russia, this week's NATO summit also aims to "send a warning to China," according to some Western media. They noted that NATO is set to discuss threats posed by China, including behavior in the South China Sea and actions on the Taiwan question. Moreover, for the third year in a row, the leaders of New Zealand, Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO summit. 

NATO is now trying to cater to the US' strategic interests and needs by amplifying the "China threat," in an attempt to address its existential crisis, Cui said. He noted that European countries hope the US will at least not abandon NATO for now and provide more security guarantees in the face of the "Russia threat" if Trump returns to the White House. 

Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the US-EU program at the Center for International Security and Strategy in Tsinghua University, said that the US and NATO have escalated accusations against China for allegedly supporting Russia, aiming to emphasize the perceived link between security in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. 

The US plans to promote NATO's expansion into Asia. However, it also recognizes that shifting NATO's focus solely through the Russia-Ukraine conflict is insufficient. Therefore, it is launching a series of actions and propaganda campaigns to amplify the perceived threat from China, said Sun. 

This strategy aims to heighten European countries' concerns about their own security, redirect their attention to the Asia-Pacific region, and provoke vigilance among European nations toward China, Sun told the Global Times. 

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Tuesday that "We firmly reject NATO's vilification and blame-shifting against China. NATO should not use China to justify its insertion into the Asia-Pacific and attempt to disrupt regional dynamics. China is a force for world peace, a contributor to global development and a defender of international order. Our objective and just position and constructive role on the Ukraine crisis and international and regional hotspot issues are widely recognized by the international community."

"We urge NATO to form the right perception of China, get rid of its Cold War mentality and zero-sum approach, stop scaremongering on security and making imaginary enemies, stop forming exclusive clubs in the name of collective defense, and play a constructive role for global peace, stability and development," Lin said.

The US plan to build an "Asian version of NATO" has alarmed people in regional countries. For example, a recent global online poll conducted by Chinese media showed that 93.1 percent of global respondents believe that security in the Asia-Pacific region should be achieved through political dialogue and peaceful negotiations among Asia-Pacific countries and they firmly oppose the US creating an "Asian version of NATO." 

Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of the People's Republic of Bangladesh at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Wednesday.

Editor's Note:

The world in 2024 is not peaceful. From great power competition to regional conflicts, to numerous global challenges, the global landscape seems to be changing every day. Will the confrontation between Russia and the West lead to a "Cold War 2.0" and the return of the "Iron Curtain" ? Is the temporary stabilization of China-US relations a true departure from the downward spiral trend, or just a short and fragile period of stability?

Recently, Global Times reporters Xie Wenting and Bai Yunyi (GT) interviewed Odd Arne Westad (Westad), Professor of History and Global Affairs at Yale University and a leading expert in Cold War history, to analyze the evolution of the international landscape from a historian's perspective. He believes that the "post-Cold War era" that has lasted for a generation is coming to an end, although it is still unclear what kind of new international order will replace it.

GT: As a historian, how do you view current relations between China and the US? Do you think the two big powers are experiencing temporary stability under the context of prolonged tensions? Or how would you describe the current state of the bilateral relations? Could it be compared to any other historical period?

Westad: When making comparisons with earlier periods, we have to be cautious and acknowledge that there is no complete match. I am very skeptical of comparing the current situation with the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, as there are significant differences between the two. The US and the Soviet Union were not part of the same global economic system, and the ideological differences were much greater between the two sides. Upon reviewing the book written by my colleague Paul Kennedy about the antagonism between Germany and Britain in the late 19th century and early 20th century, I found more similarities with the current situation.

Unfortunately, this historical conflict eventually led to conflict and war. While I am not suggesting that the current situation will necessarily end in the same way, structurally, it shares more traits with that period than with the Cold War. I think in many ways, it is true that enormous changes are taking place now, but they don't necessarily have to end in conflict.

In reality, China and the US have much more in common. The economies may function differently on some levels, but in most terms, the economies are not that different from each other. They are market-driven in both places, oriented by rules, technology, and advances in economic terms. The two countries also have much in common in how they understand the world. Both of them want stability as a precondition for their own economic development, but they don't really know how to go about achieving it, and suspicion between the two is increasing.

I think at the moment, it's clear that the US and China are going through a very difficult period in their relationship. But I can also see ways in which the relationship could be improved incrementally. It doesn't have to be a downward spiral, but both countries will have to recognize the risks of continued tensions between them and figure out ways to address them. While the US and China will likely always have areas where they won't see eye to eye, leading to rivalry between the two, it's important to prevent this rivalry from escalating into a dangerous spiral. This is a danger that we must consider.

It is very frightening to me that the US and China do not have any kind of arms control discussions between the two sides. It's not good because it leads to misunderstandings and a lack of communication on important issues.

GT: Under what circumstances do you think China and the US will enter a new period of more balanced stability?

Westad: To me, the key issues are the security issues. For example, the situation in the Taiwan Straits is important. I have proposed, while I have been here in Beijing, something I call the Shanghai Plus, which is based on the Shanghai Communiqué in 1972 and the additions for the Chinese statement that came on and so on.

So what Shanghai Plus would actually mean is that you understand that it could under no circumstance support Taiwan independence. I think some people in the US could be interested in this.

If you can deal with this and in some other issues in which China and the US play a positive role, it will help bilateral relations get to a relatively stable stage. For instance, if you look at the Ukraine crisis, it is a significant factor in the relationship between the US and China. It is necessary to achieve at least a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. I believe China can play a significant role. I believe that, to a certain extent, the US and China actually have a common interest in seeing a reduction in the conflict.

While the US and China may not become awesome friends over the next generation, it is important for both countries to work together on security issues to prevent escalation, and it's also possible for both sides to work together.
GT: What's your stance on if there will be or if we are already in the new Cold War between Russia and the West?

Westad: One of the many reasons why war should be avoided is that the outcomes are always unpredictable. I think at the moment, the risk of a bigger war breaking out in Ukraine is quite limited.

I don't think the current situation has anything to do with the Cold War. It is a conflict between countries. Russia is no longer a global superpower as the Soviet Union. It has become more limited in terms of its global influence. Conomically, Russia is struggling, and it is unlikely to see significant improvement in the near future.

I spent quite a bit of time thinking about what kind of relationship Russia will have with the US once the war is over. I think that even if there is a ceasefire, the sanctions are likely to remain in place. For Russia, this means that it will not be able to get closer to Europe, even in a regional or economic sense.

GT: From a historical perspective, what do you think are the long-term changes to the international order brought about by the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Westad: I think it is a defining conflict in many ways. The consequences of it will be long-lasting, and it marks the end of the post-Cold War era. That period has lasted a generation, but we don't quite know what's going to replace it.

One of the most significant structural changes is the increasing military and strategic integration between Europe and the US. The neutral countries in Europe are not giving up their neutrality, but they may become more aligned with the West.
GT: In your last interview with the Global Times four years ago, you mentioned that the global pandemic would strengthen the political and social process that were already underway, such as the shift of power and influence from the West to the East. Do you still believe the process of power shifting from the West to the East is ongoing?

Westad: I still believe it, although I never thought that this was just about China. I think China is a part of it. It's a difficult task for the Chinese government to move to higher growth in an economy that is already so big. So, in that sense, if they're not going to stay at 5 percent, even 4 percent, or maybe even 3.5 percent economic growth, that's pretty good.

China, in many ways, was a pioneer of this, just like Japan was a pioneer in an earlier generation. And then it is spreading elsewhere, this is quite natural. It may be in Southeast Asia in the future. This is how development progresses.

I think the European economy is probably on a platform roughly where it is now. I don't see it as very energetic, but it doesn't have to be because Europe is already rich. They can sustain themselves, and even if they experience a smaller percentage of economic growth, it is still sustainable. I think the US, among the developed countries, is probably the place that has the best chance of reasonable economic growth. But that also depends on their policies; if they choose to involve themselves in a trade war with China, much of the economic basis for American growth will also disappear.

It is striking that last year is the first year in human history in which there is no natural population growth outside of Africa. Every single country outside of African countries has falling birth rates, sometimes at a fairly high level. The population increase is going down. Only in Africa is it actually expanding at a high rate. This has enormous demographic consequences when we move to a generation cohort, where most young people in the world will be in Africa.

Some time ago, we saw that as a massive problem, but now it's a massive opportunity. Young people have the potential to staff the factories and industries and drive productive growth in the future. Some of my American friends are saying all these countries are so backward and they have to get their policies in order. My response to this is always that, because with these points of opportunities, people will make use of it, just like in China. Why did China succeed? It had sensible economic policies and a young, hungry population who wanted to make better lives for themselves.

GT: Do you think peace and development are still the theme of our era and world?

Westad: Development, for sure. Peace is a little bit harder, but I don't think the rules that we have in place are impossible to settle. They're not the kind of rules that I would expect to lead to greater competition. Maybe it's possible to be a bit more optimistic.

I think, at least for now, stabilizing the crisis in Ukraine would be a significant step. I also think that because it would show the great powers may be able to cooperate on some of these issues.

Editor's Note:

"Cognitive Warfare" has become a new form of confrontation between states, and a new security threat. With new technological means, it sets agendas and spreads disinformation, to change people's perceptions and thus alter their self-identity. Launching cognitive warfare against China is an important means for Western anti-China forces to attack and discredit the country.

Some politicians and media outlets have publicly smeared China's image by propagating false narratives in an attempt to incite and provoke dissatisfaction with China among people in certain countries. These means all serve the seemingly peaceful evolution of the US strategy to contain China's rise and maintain its hegemony.

The Global Times is publishing a series of articles to reveal the intrigues of the US-led West's China-targeted cognitive warfare, and expose its lies and vicious intentions.

This is the 13th installment in the series. As the Solomon Islands' general elections unfold, allegations of US interference surfaced before the voting began. Experts have highlighted the US' habitual practice of interfering in the domestic affairs of other countries and attempting to exert its pressure on developing nations like the Solomon Islands that seek to forge friendships and pursue development opportunities with China.
The ongoing election in the Solomon Islands has garnered significant global attention, particularly amid the geopolitical dynamics of the Pacific. This electoral event has especially piqued the interest of the US, accompanied by various allegations and concerns regarding potential US intervention.

The voting of general elections in the Solomon Islands was hosted on April 17. Currently, no party has won a majority of seats in the Solomon Islands' parliament election, CGTN reported Monday, quoting local media, citing 90 percent of counted votes.

Preliminary results from Saturday indicate that Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has successfully retained his seat in Parliament. However, it will take several more days of vote tallying to determine if his party, Our Party, will form the next government.

During this period, there has been continuous news and extensive reporting by media outlets, suggesting that the US may be trying to intervene in the Solomon Islands' elections.

Analysts point out that the US and its allies appear to be using "color revolution" tactics to infiltrate the political landscape of the Solomon Islands, emphasizing that the island country should have the sovereign right to choose its own developmental path.

Meanwhile, as China enhances its cooperation with Pacific Island countries, the US continues to assert its supposed superiority, an approach that appears not to resonate with the island populations, they said.

How has the US been attempting to exert its influence?

A recent investigative article by Russia's Sputnik news agency criticized the US' role and intentions in the upcoming elections in the Solomon Islands. The report suggested that the US Agency for International Development (USAID) might be attempting to influence the election outcome through "democracy promotion" activities, in order to counter China's influence in the region.

The report highlighted concerns over the security agreement between the Solomon Islands and China, which has alarmed the US and its allies who fear it could compromise the US' "island chain strategy" in the Pacific.

The article detailed USAID activities in the Solomon Islands, including engaging with local community political leaders, civil society organizations, and influential individuals, as well as funding surveys and training programs to bolster anti-government sentiment.

An anonymous source disclosed to the Sputnik news agency that they fear the US might incite another riot during the upcoming election to achieve its geopolitical goals.

Meanwhile, according to a report from the Covert Action Magazine earlier this month, the USAID actively intervenes in the electoral processes of other countries through its Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening (CEPPS), aiming to promote regimes that align with American interests.

The CEPPS collaborates with organizations such as the International Republican Institute (IRI), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), all of which have close ties with USAID, with the NDI and IRI having been created by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), which is considered a branch of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

According to Yu Lei, chief research fellow at the Research Center for Pacific Island Countries of Liaocheng University, the effective cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands has become a role model and a driving force for the cooperation between China and Pacific Island countries, which has encouraged other Pacific Island countries such as Papua New Guinea to deepen their cooperation with China. This has caused significant dissatisfaction in Australia and the US.

The Covert Action Magazine noted that the USAID's Solomon Islands Election and Political Processes Program (SIEPP), funded through the CEPPS, has conducted voter awareness campaigns in the Solomon Islands, aiming to sway voters toward pro-American candidates.

In 2021, NDI's surveys in opposition constituencies revealed pessimism about governance and corruption, influencing public opinion. Civil society groups, funded by USAID, spread these findings to foment dissatisfaction and potential unrest. By doing so, the USAID transformed minority views into "mainstream" public opinion, according to the Covert Action Magazine.

Notably, opposition leaders Matthew Wale and Daniel Suidani, supported by USAID, led protests in Honiara, leveraging youth groups to challenge the government, reflecting USAID's strategy of using local partnerships to promote US interests under the guise of "democratic" principles, the magazine said.
According to the Sputnik report, which cited documents provided by an anonymous source, after the Solomon Islands' 2019 election and Sogavare's shift away from the US, SIEPP was launched. Funded by the USAID and partners like the IFES, IRI, and NDI under the "Strengthening Democratic Governance in the Pacific Islands" initiative, SIEPP had an initial budget of nearly $10 million from September 2020 to September 2023. The program, expected to conclude in fall 2023, was extended to April 2024 with an additional $1.5 million after the election postponement by Sogavare.

"The US cannot tolerate the South Pacific nations developing an equal and reciprocal relationship with China. Instead, it intervenes under the guise of democracy, ultimately aiming to turn these nations into dependencies," Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times.

He pointed out the consequences of such policies. "The US mentality is unhealthy, even pathological. It cannot bear the autonomous development of the South Pacific nations, nor can it stand the idea of these countries choosing their own economic development models."

Is US' denial convincible?

In a statement released on April 16, one day before the elections began, the US Embassy in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands labeled recent accusations of its alleged interference in the Solomon Islands' electoral process as "questionable" and "disinformation."

"It is a traditional and deeply rooted practice that when the US claims non-interference, it's either hard to believe or astonishing," Li noted.

According to the Covert Action Magazine, CEPPS has extended its influence to over 140 countries, supporting like-minded candidates to aid the US government in manipulating global electoral activities.

According to New York-based Huff Post, the US has interfered in foreign elections far more frequently than it has been subject to such interference itself. A Latin American joke cited highlights this point: "Why has there never been a coup in the United States? Because there's no US Embassy in Washington."

For over a century, the US has intervened in elections globally, from Honduras to Vietnam to Iran. A series of "color revolutions" occurred in Eurasia starting in 2003, such as the Rose Revolution in Georgia, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, and the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan, all characterized by electoral protests escalating into major political crises. The US State Department has acknowledged playing a role in these regime changes, according to the report.

"The US uses NGOs to interfere in other countries' domestic politics and orchestrate color revolutions, a tactic that is no secret to the world," Li noted, adding that such actions, often branded as promoting democracy, are perceived as attempts to sow discord and crises, drawing scrutiny and raising alarms among policymakers and citizens globally.

These so-called democracy promotion efforts, which are essentially color revolutions, are unlikely to achieve their intended outcomes due to the instability of US policies. Critics argue that the US, while chaotic in its own democratic practices, presumes to set an example for others, Li said.
This lack of calm, objective, and realistic reflections on its own democratic processes disqualifies US decision-makers from legitimately influencing the internal affairs of other nations. Consequently, these actions are met with resistance and resentment, as the results of such democracy promotion activities are often subpar and unwelcome, he noted.

Yu said the US has a variety of conventional methods to tighten control in Pacific Island countries. For instance, the US directly deploys military forces in Pacific Island countries to intervene, or mobilizes local mobs and thugs to carry out subversion against some authoritarian regimes and governments perceived as disobedient to the US. The third method is to use the Pacific Islands Forum to besiege so-called disobedient countries, using economic sanctions as a way to exert pressure.

"In the short term, the effects may seem significant, such as through military occupation, which of course yields immediate results. However, in the medium to long term, the effects of the US' activities turn out to be just the opposite. But cooperation with China turns out to be fruitful," Yu said.

Will the established understandings be affected?

In recent years, China's outreach and engagement have deepened across the Solomon Islands. Even regions that were once opposed to establishing diplomatic ties with China have accepted China's olive branch.

However, the gradually establishing mutual connections and trust is not without its challenges.

According to a report by the SIBC on Saturday, former opposition leader of the Democratic Party of the Solomon Islands, Wale, retained his seat in Malaita Province's Auki. Meanwhile, notorious opposition politician Suidani was re-elected to the Malaita Provincial Assembly.

The former premier of Malaita Province, Suidani, attracted attention for his opposition to the Solomon Islands' relations with China. His stance led to conflicts with the central government, culminating in his removal from office in February 2023, following a no-confidence motion passed by the provincial assembly.

However, a Memorandum of Understanding to establish friendly exchange relations was signed last week between Malaita Province and East China's Jiangsu Province. This new chapter follows years of skepticism, indicating a pivot toward cooperation and mutual growth, analysts noted.

"The China-Solomon Islands relationship, forged under very trying conditions, is now maturing," Dr Luke Mani, director of the Solomon Islands Foreign Policy Advisory Secretariat, told the Global Times. "Evidence abounds that Solomon Islanders [have now] firmly and openly embraced China."

Various infrastructure projects funded by traditional multilateral development partners such as the Munda Airport and terminal upgrades, Henderson Airport runway extensions, and East-West Honiara highway have benefited from the expertise and quality of Chinese engineering firms such as China Civil Engineering Construction Company and China Railway, Mani said.

These tangible benefits have gradually warmed the Malaitians to China, with a recent poll showing 61 percent of respondents favor maintaining the relationship after this year's elections.

The public opinion storm over interference in the election reflects Pacific Island nations' dissatisfaction with the US' use of aid to exert political influence and as leverage in exchange for national geopolitical interests, noted Qin Sheng, an executive research fellow at the Center for Australia, New Zealand, and South Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

"The aid competition promoted by the US in the South Pacific region with a zero-sum game mindset is forcing Pacific Island nations to take sides, as evidenced by the ongoing troubles in domestic and diplomatic affairs since the Solomon Islands established diplomatic relations with China," Qin said.

In stark contrast to the US, China emphasizes equality and mutual benefit, non-interference in internal affairs, and aid process without strings attached, respecting the political system, development stage, and development characteristics of Pacific Island nations. As a major power, China never looks down on them, and it is precisely these various advantages of Chinese aid that make China the most trustworthy South-South cooperation partner for Pacific Island nations, the expert noted.

Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday sent a congratulatory letter to the eighth China-Russia Expo held in Harbin, northeast China's Heilongjiang Province.